Britain’s surprising vote to leave the European Union shook equity,
currency and commodity markets in late June, but we still think the
Federal Reserve was the dominant player in the first half of 2016, and
there’s little reason to think that will change in the second half.
The OPEC meeting in Vienna this week comes in the midst of an oil price
increase. Friday’s release of the U.S. employment numbers for May will
be closely watched to see if they are in line with earlier positive
data. If so, the likelihood of a Fed rate increase in June goes up
considerably, which could lead to more dollar appreciation.