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John Spear, CFA, USAA Mutual Funds Chief Investment Officer.jpg

By John Spear, CFA, USAA Mutual Funds Chief Investment Officer

 

As we approach the midpoint of 2017, investors are still trying to make up their minds on the Trump agenda – basically whether to keep hoping for results or to write it off. Whatever they end up deciding may have a sizable impact on how the second half of the year plays out.

 

We think it’s pretty safe to say that few believe the most optimistic vision, which drove asset prices immediately after the November election, will come to pass. This included real economic growth exceeding 3% annually, a large tax cut for individuals and companies, a wholesale rewrite of the regulatory regime and a massive investment in infrastructure.

 

The question now is which of these big targets may be hittable, and on what timeline. The administration has used executive orders to chop through some of the regulatory thickets – tax cuts and infrastructure come with a higher degree of difficulty. But if it starts to look like something might get done, some of that early optimism could return.

 

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in June; it was the fourth hike in the tightening cycle that began in December 2015, and it came despite scant inflation and signs that the U.S. economy may be softening.

 

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The Fed signaled another rate bump in the second half of 2017, but the market is not convinced it will happen – yields on the 10-year Treasury have dipped from 2.6% in mid-March to 2.1% in mid-June. If economic data continues to come in on the weak side, the Fed may play it safe. This scenario would support bond prices, and it would also fit our “low-ish for longer” outlook.

 

While the Fed is tightening, the eurozone and Japanese central banks are still in loosening mode via ultra-low rates and large-scale bond purchases – Figure 1 shows the Fed’s holding steady as Europe and Japan pile up more balance-sheet assets.

 

Later this year, the Fed plans to start slowly trimming back its $4 trillion in bond holdings. The deliberate pace makes sense to us -- moving too quickly would have risked a plunge in bond prices at the long end of the curve. Nonetheless, even a slow runoff could push down prices and push up interest rates.

 

ASSET CLASS OUTLOOK

 

Non-U.S. stock markets set the pace in the first half of 2017 (Figure 2). A number of key developed-market indices were close to all-time highs, while Japan’s Nikkei index was near a multi-decade peak.

The Treasury market appears to be responding to growing signs that the U.S. economy could be slowing – yields on longer-term Treasuries have fallen as many investors embraced haven assets.

U.S. stocks continued their strong performance, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index further stretching already rich valuations in a low-volatility environment. Sharper-than-expected earnings growth contributed to the equity exuberance, as well as to tighter U.S. credit spreads.

 

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The U.S. stock market has been unusually placid for a while – big moves up or down are so rare that their appearance makes for bold headlines. International markets are also calm. But just because markets have been docile doesn’t mean they’re going to stay that way. We believe investors should not be surprised to see more volatility going forward.

 

U.S. EQUITIES

 

While we may be relatively late in the economic cycle and stock valuations are lofty, we don’t view U.S. stocks as being vulnerable to a large reversal any time soon. The S&P 500 has posted a number of record highs in 2017, the latest coming in mid-June, but the climb has been slow and without the sort of exuberance that suggests an impending top.

 

Valuation-wise, we think the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is essentially at its upper bound – it’s hard to envision investors being willing to pay much more for a given dollar of profits. In our view, the likeliest catalyst that could push stock prices higher is companies producing more profits, and the best way to do that is stronger-than-expected revenue growth in 2Q and beyond. Tax cuts, if enacted, could also help.

 

Corporate fundamentals were good in the first quarter of 2017, but that’s compared to a weak 1Q a year earlier. Quarter-over-quarter comparisons will get tougher as the year progresses. Two sectors to monitor to determine how well the market is holding up are financials (gauge of credit demand) and technology (measure of corporate spending). 

 

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INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES

 

Over the past several years, the rationale for overweighting U.S. equities has boiled down to “there is no alternative,” as other non-U.S. developed markets struggled with deflation and emerging markets dealt with weak commodity prices and a slowing Chinese economy.

 

That storyline has been rewritten in 2017 – economic growth and corporate fundamentals in both DM (most notably the eurozone) and EM are fueling a strong upswing in share prices. And because those asset classes have not enjoyed the same sort of multi-year returns as U.S. equities, they remain relatively undervalued compared to U.S. stocks (Figure 3).

 

As long-term investors focused on relative valuation, we were early to this trade in our asset allocation portfolios – we have been overweight DM and EM stocks for several years in anticipation of narrowing performance between U.S. and global markets. We added to that overweight as we grew more confident in its staying power.

 

Risks are down, but not out. For DM, there are still open questions about bad debt at big banks and we worry a bit that a volatility spike in U.S. stocks could be contagious. For EM, a revived U.S. dollar could hurt, as could changes to U.S. trade policy.

 

FIXED INCOME

 

Fixed income is not cheap, but it also doesn’t carry the rich valuations prevailing in the U.S. equity market. We don’t see a negative catalyst in the offing that suddenly changes the risk-reward dynamic, so we think bondholders can continue to pocket current income without worrying too much about a price plunge.

 

Ultra-tight spreads suggest U.S. credit may be overvalued, but we think there are several key reasons why it may be resilient for at least the next few quarters, and maybe longer.

 

First, improving corporate fundamentals stand to reduce default and downgrade risk. In terms of revenue and earnings growth, the first quarter of 2017 was the S&P 500’s best in five years, and the outlook for the rest of the year is good. Fundamentals are also improving in global markets.

 

Second, falling expectations for U.S. economic growth could cut inflationary pressures and thus the pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.  

 

And third, rock-bottom Treasury yields continue to push income investors toward credit – this trend has strengthened in tandem with corporate fundamentals. Inflows are not only domestic, but also from yield-starved investors overseas where interest rates are even lower (Figure 4).

 

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COMMODITIES

 

After last year’s dramatic rebound, oil has steadily trended downward in 2017 on oversupply issues. The pace picked up after the Fed’s interest-rate increase in March and accelerated further in May after disappointing production news from OPEC. By late June, crude was in bear market territory and energy shares were in the tank. Demand for oil is growing, but the supply glut is growing faster.  It’s hard to see what might reverse this trend over the near term.

 

Last year’s powerful tailwind from China that propelled industrial metals – including copper, nickel and iron ore – appears to have died down in 2017. Waning demand from the world’s largest consumer has pressed down on prices, and brimming inventories are likely to limit any near-term recovery for the metals or the miners.

 

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Gold rallied close to $1,300 an ounce in May on U.S. political concerns before rolling over when the Fed’s June rate hike seemed assured. The metal’s performance is well ahead of gold-mining stocks – the lag for the equities is in large part due to cost pressures as well as problems facing specific mines. As a haven asset, gold could return to favor in the event of geopolitical turbulence or if global economic growth loses momentum.

  

 

 

 

As always, we encourage investors to speak with one of our financial advisors, who can help determine which investment vehicles are suited for you based upon your individual goals, objectives, risk tolerance and time horizon.

 

Investing in securities products involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

 

This material is provided for informational purposes only by USAA Asset Management Company (AMCO) and/or USAA Investment Management Company (IMCO), both registered investment advisors. The material is not investment advice and is not a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any security, strategy or investment product. The views and opinions expressed in the material solely reflect the judgment of the authors, but not necessarily those of AMCO, IMCO or any affiliates as of the date provided and are subject to change at any time. All information and data presented herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is believed to be accurate as of the time presented, but AMCO/IMCO does not guarantee its accuracy. The information presented should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Any past results provided do not predict or indicate future performance, which may be negative. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of AMCO/IMCO and USAA.

 

Diversification is a technique to help reduce risk. There is no absolute guarantee that diversification will protect against a loss of income.

 

The fixed income securities are subject to price volatility and a number of risks, including interest rate risk. Interest rates and bond prices move in opposite directions so that as interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall and vice versa. Interest rates are currently at historically low levels. Fixed income securities also carry other risks, such as inflation risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and credit and default risks. Lower-quality fixed income securities involve greater risk of default or price changes. Securities of non-U.S. issuers generally involve greater risks than U.S. investments and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market and economic risks. Fixed income securities sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

 

Investments in foreign securities are subject to additional and more diverse risks, including but not limited to currency fluctuations, market illiquidity, and political and economic instability. Foreign investing may result in more rapid and extreme changes in value than investments made exclusively in the securities of U.S. companies. There may be less publicly available information relating to foreign companies than those in the U.S. Foreign securities may also be subject to foreign taxes. Investments made in emerging market countries may be particularly volatile. Economies of emerging market countries are generally less diverse and mature than more developed countries and may have less stable political systems.

 

MSCI Developed Market Indices are unmanaged and based on the share prices of approximately 1,700 companies listed on the stock exchanges in the 22 countries that make up the MSCI World Index. They are calculated without dividends, with net and gross dividends reinvested.

 

The unmanaged MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets.

 

The unmanaged MSCI EAFE Index comprises 21 MSCI country indices, representing the developed markets outside of North America: Europe, Australasia and the Far East. It aims to include in its international indices 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each industry group, within each country

 

Gold is a volatile asset class and is subject to additional risks, such as currency fluctuation, market liquidity, political instability and increased price volatility. It may be more volatile than other asset classes that diversify across many industries and companies.

 

The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Municipal Index covers the U.S. dollar-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds and pre-refunded bonds.

 

The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the U.S. dollar-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Barclays EM country definition, are excluded.

 

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is made up of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities. The index currently represents 20 commodities, which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity.

 

The MSCI USA Index is designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid-cap segments of the U.S. equity market. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the U.S.

 

The MSCI Europe Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 15 developed market countries in Europe. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization across the European developed markets equity universe.

 

The S&P SmallCap 600 Index measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market. The index is designed to track companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are liquid and financially viable.

 

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and S&P are registered trademarks. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 stocks. The S&P 500 focuses on the large cap segment of the market, covering 75% of the U.S. equities market.  S&P 500 is a trademark of the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

 

The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index that consists of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3,000 Index and is a widely recognized small cap index.

 

Investments provided by USAA Investment Management Company and USAA Financial Advisors Inc., both registered broker dealers, and affiliates.

 

Financial planning services and financial advice provided by USAA Financial Planning Services Insurance Agency, Inc. (known as USAA Financial Insurance Agency in California, License # 0E36312), a registered investment advisor and insurance agency and its wholly owned subsidiary, USAA Financial Advisors, Inc., a registered broker dealer.

 

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